The most recent Marquette University Law School poll, released in late September,  showed Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin with an 11 point lead over Republican state Senator Leah Vukmir. But Republican Party of Wisconsin (RPW) modeling shows Baldwin with just a two point lead. The Vukmir campaign is touting them in an email to donors that was obtained by Media Trackers:

Remember when all the public polls got the RonJon {U.S. Senator Ron Johnson} race wrong in 2016? And how wrong were they on Trump?!

The attached document shows how right our team was while everyone else was mis-reading. And the same thing is happening now. I believe our team’s data – which means we are in range to make up this TWO POINT difference in the next month.

I also wanted to point out – this deficit is AFTER Sen. Baldwin has outspent Leah 10:1 on air. We still have time to fix this.

A Republican insider told Media Trackers that the modeling has an impressive track record: “I’m very familiar with it and the guy at RPW who does this data crunching.  He was the only one to get 2016 right, so he certainly has credibility. ”

In fact, the email to donors includes a document which details an impressive modeling record for recent elections.

Numbers reflecting a tightening race come as many observers believe a heated battle over the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh has energized the conservative voting base.

Jerry Bader is the editor of Media Trackers and also the host of the podcast Jerry Bader Live. This appears courtesy of Media Trackers.