Baldwin leads Vukmir 53 percent to 43 percent in latest poll

According to the latest Marquette University Law School Poll results, we have a dead heat in the race for governor while little has changed in the race for U.S. Senate.

Governor Scott Walker and Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers are nearly tied in the latest Marquette Poll. Walker leads in the current poll 47 percent to 46 percent among likely voters, with just five percent supporting Libertarian candidate Phil Anderson.

That’s a shift in Walker’s favor over the poll results in September which showed Evers leading Walker 49 percent to 44 percent.

The biggest shift was among independents who now support Evers 46 percent to 40 percent. That’s down from the poll in September which showed Evers with a 20 percent lead among independents.

The poll had other numbers showing a shift in Walker’s direction compared to September’s results. Walker’s approval rating among likely voters is 48 percent while his disapproval rating is 47 percent. That’s an improvement over September when 46 percent approved of Walker and 51 percent disapproved.

Evers had a favorable rating of 41 percent compared to 38 percent unfavorable among likely voters. The poll found 20 percent of likely voters had no opinion of Evers. In September, Evers had a favorable rating of 40 percent but an unfavorable rating of only 29 percent, suggesting Walker’s campaign is being successful in defining Evers with undecided voters.

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percent for likely voters.

Among registered voters, 54 percent of Wisconsin registered voters see the state as headed in the right direction while 40 percent think the state is off on the wrong track. That’s also a shift in Walker’s favor from September when 50 percent of registered voters said Wisconsin was headed in the right direction and 47 percent said Wisconsin was on the wrong track.

The margin of error for registered voters sampled is +/-3.6 percent.

While Walker received some good news from the latest poll results, state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield) and U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) are in about the same place as they were a month ago. Among likely voters, Baldwin leads 53 percent to 43 percent. In September, likely voters favored Baldwin 53 percent to 42 percent.

Baldwin is doing better than Vukmir in the favorable/unfavorable comparison, too. Baldwin is looked at favorably by 49 percent of likely voters while 42 percent have an unfavorable impression of her. For Vukmir, 30 percent of likely voters have a favorable impression while 43 percent have an unfavorable impression.

Baldwin leads with women in every category:

Table of poll results from Marquette University Law School.

The latest Marquette poll was conducted before the U.S. Senate debate Monday night so it is unknown yet whether the debate will have any effect on the race.

Among likely voters, incumbent Attorney General Brad Schimel (R-WI) continues to lead his Democratic opponent Josh Kaul 47 percent to 43 percent. In September, Schimel led 48 percent to 41 percent, so only a little change in that race. Kaul continues to be an unknown candidate in the race with 81 percent of likely voters having no opinion of him. On the other hand, 32 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Schimel while 22 percent of likely voters have an unfavorable opinion. Still, 46 percent do not have an opinion of Schimel, suggesting the race could be influenced by the races at the top of the ticket. Schimel leads with independent voters 45 percent to Kaul’s 38 percent.

President Donald Trump’s approval rating improved from September. In the latest poll results, Trump has a 46 percent approval rating with 51 percent disapproving of him. In September, his approval was 42 percent while 54 percent disapproved.

Republicans also saw a favorable shift in voter enthusiasm. Democrats still lead in voter enthusiasm with 76 percent saying they are very enthusiastic about voting in November. That’s almost unchanged from September when 75 percent said they were very enthusiastic about voting. However, Republicans who say they are very enthusiastic about voting went up from 64 percent in September to 70 percent in October.

The latest poll of 1000 registered voters was conducted between October 3 to October 7, 2018. The partisan makeup of those polled, including independents who “lean” Republican or Democrat,  is 47 percent Republican and 44 percent Democratic with 8 percent independents.

The last Marquette poll results before the midterm election is expected to be released around Halloween. Election day is November 6, 2018.