Former White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus says that if Governor Scott Walker is re-elected in November, state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield) will most likely defeat Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI). In an interview with Jay Weber on WISN-AM, Priebus explained that Republican governors often carry the same-party U.S. Senate candidate to victory with them.

“If a Republican governor wins any state, there is a 75 percent chance historically that the Republican will also win the U.S. Senate race,” Priebus said. “And I don’t think there is an awful lot of attention being given to governors races as much as people talk about the House and the Senate because governors race outcomes will determine, by about a 75 percent rate, the winner of the Senate race.”

Priebus said the effect of governors races on Senate races should carry over into Wisconsin.

“If Walker wins by 3 or 4, Leah Vukmir is going to win this race,” Priebus said. “And if she does, then it’s going to be an anomaly, and I don’t see that given how polarized Wisconsin is.”

Priebus does not see a lot of cross-over voting in the race and said it tends to cancel out in both directions. Therefore, it’s unlikely Baldwin will win if Walker defeats Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers.

“If Walker keeps moving in this direction that he’s going, I think Leah can win this race,” Priebus said. “And I think she will win certainly if things keep moving in the right direction. She should win just based on that Tammy Baldwin hasn’t done anything other than collect a lot of money from Hollywood.”

Priebus led the Republican Party to unprecedented victories as both chairman of the Republican Party of Wisconsin (RPW) and the Republican National Committee (RNC). Under Priebus, the RNC led the turn-out efforts that enabled President Donald Trump to win in 2016.

In the latest Marquette University Law School Poll, Vukmir trails Baldwin 53 percent to 43 percent while Walker and Evers are nearly tied. Walker is doing better than Vukmir with women that are not college educated and with independents.