Wisconsin Democrats may have felt snubbed by Hillary Clinton’s failure to campaign in Wisconsin in 2016, but they’re elated the Democratic National Convention is coming to Wisconsin in 2020. However, how much the Democrats coming to Milwaukee will actually help the party win in Wisconsin is open to debate, according to Jim Geraghty of National Review.
“Political-media types love to dissect the selection of host cities, with a lot of speculation about whether it gives a party a leg up in winning the host state,” Geraghty wrote. “But there’s little evidence that the selection of a host city has any real impact on which candidate wins that state.”
Last cycle, the Republicans picked Cleveland and the Democrats picked Philadelphia, and Trump won both states. (Republicans won both Senate races in those states that year, too.) Four years earlier, the Democrats picked Charlotte, and the Republicans picked Tampa. Romney narrowly won North Carolina, Obama won Florida. Four years before that, Democrats picked Denver, Republicans picked Saint Paul; Obama won both Colorado and Minnesota. Four years before that, Republicans picked New York City, Democrats picked Boston. John Kerry won both New York and Massachusetts. In 2000, Republicans picked Philadelphia and Democrats picked Los Angeles, and Al Gore won both Pennsylvania and California.
Geraghty says there is a likely a small boost from recruiting volunteers and energizing the party, as well as a symbolic victory.