(The Center Square) – Not many people in Wisconsin have changed their minds about Joe Biden or President Donald Trump.
The latest Marquette Law School poll gives Biden a five-point lead over the president among likely voters, 49-44. That’s about where the race has been in Wisconsin for months.
“In June, among likely voters, Biden was supported by 50 percent and Trump by 44 percent, with 6 percent choosing neither. Biden had 49 percent in May and Trump 45 percent,” pollsters wrote Tuesday.
The only big number that seems to have changed in the new poll is the president’s approval rating.
“In August, Trump’s overall job approval declined to 44 percent, with 54 percent disapproving,” the poll states. “Trump’s approval was last this low in January 2019 when approval was 44 percent and disapproval was 52 percent.”
Another 42 percent of voters asked said they have a favorable view of the president, while another 55 percent had an unfavorable view.
Biden’s favorable rating is not much better at 43 percent. His unfavorable rating, however, is lower at 48 percent.
Those favorable ratings, however, are not reflected in voter enthusiasm or support for the candidates among their own party.
“Democrats and Republicans are almost equally likely to say they are certain to vote in November, with independents somewhat less so,” pollsters wrote. “About 87 percent of both Democrats and Republicans say they are certain to vote, while independents indicate they are 60 percent certain to vote.”
“Democratic and Republican unity has fluctuated but remained near 90 percent or above for both parties,” the poll states. “Independents have narrowly divided preferences, favoring Biden in June and August, but with a substantial percentage not choosing either major party candidate.”
The new numbers show 91 percent of Republicans plan to vote for Trump, and 93 percent of Democrats plan to vote for Biden. Thirty-nine percent of Independents told pollsters they would vote for Biden, 34 percent said they would vote for Trump. Another 12 percent said neither, and 6 percent said they did not know.
Marquette Law School pollsters said the numbers in August 2020 are not that different than the number for Trump in August 2016.
“Biden’s numbers are slightly better than Hillary Clinton’s numbers were in 2016,” pollsters said.
Biden does best among voters in Milwaukee and Madison, while he trails the president in the Milwaukee suburbs and the rest of the state.
The poll was conducted Aug. 4-9. The sample included 801 registered voters in Wisconsin who were interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. There are 675 likely voters included in the poll, with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points.
Benjamin Yount reports on Illinois and Wisconsin statewide issues for The Center Square. Reposted with permission.